看好铜市场的十大理由
Ten reasons why we like copper
铜将成为极具吸引力的大宗商品。
Copper is an extremely attractive commodity.
必和必拓从供给和需求两方面分别出发，结合自身评估大宗商品前景的框架，详细说明看好铜市场的十大理由。
Here BHP builds on that work by outlining why BHP remains committed to the pursuit of organic growth in the red metal. The ten reasons put forward – five supply related, five demand related - range across all aspects of our proprietary framework for assessing the attractiveness of commodities.
供给侧
The supply side
1. 铜矿品位逐步下降，全球大型优质资源耗减
1. Systematic grade decline and resource depletion
目前主要运营的矿山产量在未来10年间将不断下降。主要原因是由于斑岩型铜矿的品位如市场长期预期般持续下滑。斑岩型铜矿在世界铜金属总储量中所占比重最大，目前是全球铜供给最主要的来源。
Primary output from currently operating mines is reportedly likely to decline over the coming decade. This is due to the long-anticipated decline in grade that is endemic to the porphyry resource base that currently dominates global supply.
鉴于这一不可避免的地质事实，市场需要开采新的矿山来增加供应量，满足全球日益增长的铜需求量，并能够抵消现有铜矿品味下降所产生的不利影响。
That is a geological fact. The implication is that new mines will have to be developed to offset this decline and to meet rising demand.
但我们认为这绝非易事，而且成本会更高。
Our view is that this will be no easy or inexpensive matter.
2. 缺乏成功的勘探大发现
2. Lack of big bang exploration success
目前全球主要的铜产量还是来源于数十年前勘探和开采的那些巨型矿床，它们的运营成本也相对较低。但有数据显示，这些金属矿床的勘探量都已到达了峰值。
Global copper mine output is currently built on a foundation of giant deposits with low operating costs that were discovered and developed decades ago. Statistics show that the discovery of metals deposits peaked.
要确保行业的成本曲线不再变得更加陡峭，我们需要在有限的时间内勘探并开采可替代的资产组合。
To confidently predict that the industry wide cost curve will not steepen as today’s giants age, one would need to have observed a portfolio of like-for-like deposits being discovered and developed on the required timeframe.
现实情况并非如此，分析表明，在进入新的千禧年后，一级矿产资源已变得十分稀缺，资源发现在全球金融危机之后进一步放缓。
The reality is that this has not been the case. Analysis shows that Tier-I discoveries across the minerals sphere have become scarce in the new millennium, with an additional slowdown post GFC.
铜市场也不例外，我们认为由于缺乏新一代的一级资源，铜的成本曲线极有可能在21世纪20年代变得更加陡峭，这将迫使人们通过持续开采较低质量或是开采更高成本的矿床来弥补这一资源短缺。
Copper is no exception. Our view is that it is extremely likely that the copper cost curve will steepen in the 2020s, as the absence of a significant new generation of Tier-I assets will leave lower quality and/or higher cost deposits to fill the looming gap.
奥林匹克坝铜矿（Olympic Dam）扩建项目可能是个例外。
The expansion of Olympic Dam is a likely exception to this rule.
3. 项目投资风险
3. Above ground risk
在我们讨论全球缺乏对新资源的勘探发现这一话题时，我们注意到，经合组织成员国地区金属矿的勘探量在20世纪80年代达到了峰值，这些国家面临的项目投资风险，即从矿山勘探到矿产品推入市场销售的过程中所遇到的“非技术性”挑战相对较低。
In our discussion of exploration success above (or more correctly, the lack of it), we noted the volume of metal discoveries in the OECD countries, where ‘above ground risk’- or challenges associated with bringing a product to market - is relatively low, peaked in the 1980s.
在过去的十年里，只有哈萨拉以南非洲地区金属矿产勘探成功量有所增长，而这些国家和地区的项目投资风险相对较高。
The only region where the rate of metals discoveries increased in the 2000s over the preceding decade was Sub-Saharan Africa, where above ground risk is relatively high.
在所有其它条件相同的情况下，项目投资风险越高，矿山成功勘探进而对全球产量做出贡献的可能性就会越低。
All other things being equal, the higher the level of above ground risk, the lower the probability of a discovery proceeding to development and, ultimately, contributing to global production.
很显然，项目投资风险的大小是影响勘探成功与否的一个重要因素。
Above ground risk has been shown to act as a curb on exploration success.
国际货币基金组织最近的一项研究发现，政治风险的降低有助于推动金属矿产勘探。
A recent study by the International Monetary Fund concluded that improvements in political risk are a powerful driver of the rate of metal discoveries.
就当今的铜市场，及展望21世纪20年代后半段发展而言，这一发现有着重大的意义。
In terms of today’s copper market and its expected development in the second half of the 2020s, and beyond, this has major implications.
如果当前最具潜力的铜矿勘探区的项目投资风险在加权计算基础上显著高于20世纪80年代或90年代，那么此地区的勘探和开采的成功性将大大降低。
If the most prospective areas for copper exploration now are in regions where above ground risk is materially higher, on a weighted basis, than in the 1980s and 1990s, then it is likely the probability of discoveries is now much lower, and the probability of developing what is discovered has also fallen.
4. 水资源短缺
4. Water constraints
澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织（CSIRO）的数据显示，生产一辆传统内燃机汽车的铜用量需要消耗约1600升水。
According to the CSIRO, around 1600 litres of water is required to produce the copper used in a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle.
包括拉丁美洲阿塔卡马地区、美国西南部、中亚以及南非等在内的重要铜产地，都面临着水资源严重短缺的问题。
Regions that are either arid or are projected to suffer high water stress and are also important copper producing regions, include the Atacama region of Latin America; the south west of the United States; Central Asia and southern Africa.
海水淡化工厂可以保障个体项目的用水安全，但是其需要大额投资，还需要耗费大量的能源来维持设备持续运行。
Desalination plants can help provide water security for individual operations, but they require large capital outlay to install and considerable energy to run.
如果不使用海水脱盐技术，那么在水资源稀缺的地区，铜矿生产商要想与其它商业用户或是公众争夺水资源将会面临颇多挑战。
Where desalination solutions are not pursued, competing with other commercial users and the broader community for resources in water scarce regions can be extremely challenging.
在铜矿业，或者更广义的矿产行业，符合道德标准且高效的水资源管理将会成为部分运营商的竞争优势。
In copper, as in mining more generally, effective, ethical water stewardship is expected increasingly to emerge as a competitive advantage for those operators that get it right.
对于那些无法做到这点的运营商，能否继续拥有运营许可都将成为问题。
For those that do not, their ability to maintain their social license to operate may come into question.
5. 合理的市场波动
5. Rational market dynamics
在面临市场压力时铜矿业已经显示出一个较为合理的动态机制。
The copper mining industry has shown itself to be a relatively rational dynamic engine when under stress.
在周期性下滑期期间，现金成本曲线上的90%分位线（供需均衡点）已经成铜价的一个有效支撑点。
The 90th percentile on the cash cost curve has served as an effective floor for copper prices during cyclical downturns.
并非所有大宗商品都如此，在一些形成了粘性供给的市场中，矿产价格会跌至90%分位现金成本线以下，并且持续数年。
Not all commodities exhibit such dynamics, with sticky uneconomic supply in some markets allowing prices to fall below the 90th percentile, and sustain there, for years at a time.
但在最近的铜价低迷时期，铜价在90%分位线上还出现了反弹，这表明即使在零利率时代，当其它一些大宗商品出现显著的粘性供给时，铜市却仍可以将价格波动控制在合理的范围内。
Copper prices bounced off the 90th percentile in the recent downturn, illustrating that even in a world of zero interest rates, with sticky supply evident in a number of other commodities, dynamic rationality was the order of the day in copper.
需求侧——传统应用
The demand side – traditional arguments
6. 中国消费
6. Chinese consumers.
家庭消费对于中国经济的重要性与日俱增，例如汽车、科技产品（如智能设备）以及家庭耐用品（如空调）等。
The increasing importance of household consumption in the Chinese economy should provide a boost to copper demand across a range of end-use sectors, including autos, technology products (e.g. smart devices), and household durable goods (e.g. air conditioners).
这一系列的终端需求都将拉动市场上的铜需求量。虽然中国一、二线城市居民已经形成了都市生活方式，但是来自三线及以下城市的居民以及约占中国总人口数47%左右的农村地区居民对于铜的需求潜力还未得到充分释放。
While the residents of China’s Tier-I and Tier-II cities are already established in an urban consumer lifestyle, residents of lower tier cities and the ~47% of the population still residing in the countryside, have a great deal further to go in this regard.
另外，提高城市住宅质量的过程不仅仅是居住空间，而是如何利用布（铜）线来提升优化居住功能。
Furthermore, the process of upgrading the quality of the urban dwelling stock is not just about raw living space - it is about wiring that space to best effect.
7. 印度市场快速发展
7. India rising
印度市场的快速发展也将成为带动全球铜需求的又一大利好。
The development trajectory of India is expected to be a major boon for copper demand.
印度城市消费者在所有与铜相关的重要终端应用领域（电视机除外）的消费水平都比中国落后数十年。
India’s urban consumers are decades behind their Chinese counterparts in terms of all key end-use sectors important to copper (with the exception of televisions).
目前印度的城市化率依然较低。此外，印度在基础设施建设相关领域的表现也让人期待，因为目前无论是在数量上还是在质量上都存在很大的地区差距。
The urban population share itself is also still low. Additionally, where India’s infrastructure endowment is concerned, both quantity and quality gaps abound.
所以长期来看，印度经济的快速发展将为很多领域带来新的机遇。
The long run demand opportunity presented by a successful development drive in India is huge in aggregate and broad based by sector.
需求侧——技术大趋势
The demand side – technological mega-trends
8. 能源需求电气化
8. The electrification of energy demand
我们的预测假设，从当前到本世纪中叶，电力需求量将超过一次能源需求总量的增长。
Our projections assume that the demand for electricity will outstrip the growth in total primary energy demand between now and mid-century.
而电力的生产、分配和传输各个环节都需要使用大量的铜。
The production, distribution and transmission of all that power will require a great deal of copper.
9. 交通电气化
9. The electrification of transport
交通电气化发展已是大势所趋。鉴于每辆纯电动汽车的铜用量是传统中型内燃机汽车的四倍（约80公斤对20公斤），铜有望成为轻型车辆电气化发展的大赢家。
The mega-trend within the mega-trend. As a battery powered electric vehicle (EV) contains four times as much copper as a conventional medium sized car (around 80kg versus around 20kg), the red metal is expected to be a big winner from the electrification of the light duty vehicle fleet.
在我们考虑的一系列可能性中，我们的基准预测显示，到2035年电动汽车数量将增至2.3亿辆，到2050年预计将会增至7.5亿辆（届时，电动汽车将约占汽车总保有量的一半）。
Among the range of possibilities that we consider, our mid case estimate is the EV fleet rises towards 230 million in 2035 and around three quarters of a billion in 2050 (i.e. roughly half of the fleet).
在科技进步更加飞速以及政策环境更加有利的“绿色情景”下，我们预计到2035年，电动汽车数量有望突破5亿大关，到本世纪中叶将超过10亿辆。
Under a green scenario enabled by more rapid technological progress and an even more supportive policy environment, it is possible that we could hit half a billion EVs by 2035 and move well beyond the one billion mark by mid-century.
随着越来越多的电动汽车进入轻型汽车市场，这些电动汽车的车载电脑系统也将会越来越先进，设计也会日益精密复杂。
And as EVs move into more and more segments of the light duty vehicle market, and those EVs carry more and more sophisticated onboard computer systems.
所以目前估计的每辆电动汽车约80公斤的铜用量可能将无法满足，铜需求量还会持续上涨。
It is unlikely that the current assumption of 80kg of copper per car will continue to hold, and the direction of change will be upwards.
事实上，瑞士联合银行的研究人员已经将该数值提升至90公斤左右。
Indeed, researchers at UBS already put the figure at 90kg.
10. 风能和太阳能
10. Wind and solar
自本世纪初以来，风能和太阳能的发电产能都取得了非常可观的增长。
The growth of both wind and solar power generation capacity since the turn of the century has been nothing short of spectacular.
随着新建产能的快速增长，相关的硬件成本也有所下降。
So too have been the reductions in hardware cost associated with the rapid building up of new manufacturing capacity.
即使不考虑政府补贴，全球主要的市场上的风能和太阳能发电与传统发电模式的成本差距也在急速缩小。
Wind and solar are rapidly closing the unsubsidised cost competitiveness gap with traditional power generation across the world’s major markets.
从铜用量角度来看，海上风力发电每兆瓦时铜需求量系数是燃煤发电的5倍左右，太阳能发电约为燃煤发电的2.5倍。
From a copper point of view, the per megawatt hour demand coefficient associated with offshore wind generation is almost five times that associated with coal generation. For solar, the coefficient is around two and a half.
随着经济趋势长期向好以及全球正在向低排放能源体系过度，风能和太阳能等可再生能源将会持续高增长，这也是我们看好铜市场的一个重要原因。
Attractive long run economics, plus the important role that renewables will need to play in the decarbonisation of the world economy, promise a sustained high growth path for wind and solar. Fast growing and copper hungry - that makes the wind and solar revolution a worthy conclusion to our catalogue of reasons to like copper.
