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It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To(您最好倾听的不止是钯金)

2020-05-21 14:58
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  Whenever one hears the words precious metals, gold and silver spring to mind. But this world is much richer, and precious metals don’t end with the yellow or white metal. The less well known cousins, platinum and palladium, can and do send valuable signals too. Before we examine silver, let’s take a look at something interesting in palladium.


  当人们提起贵金属,首先想到的是黄金和白银。但是这个世界要丰富的多,而贵金属不仅仅以黄色或白色金属结尾,还有铂和钯这两个不太为人所知的表兄弟,他们也在做着有价值的事情。在考察白银之前,让我们看一下钯中的一些有趣的东西。

 

 

 

  The interesting detail is palladium’s weakness. This precious metal was the one that soared most profoundly in the past few years and while it recovered some of its 2020 declines recently, it appears to be back in the bearish mode as its unable to keep gained ground, even despite the move higher in the general stock market.


  有趣的细节是钯的弱点。这种贵金属是过去几年中涨幅最大的一种,直到2020年它出现了衰退,似乎回到了下跌行情,无法找到它的支撑,即使股市处于上涨行情。

 

  The previous leader is now definitely lagging. And you know what was leading? The previous laggard – gold stocks. And you know what is leading now? Silver – as it usually does in the final part of the upswing. The HUI Index is marked with brown in the bottom part of the chart. When leaders are lagging, and laggards are leading, one should recognize that the market is topping – and that’s the key take-away from the palladium and platinum analysis right now.


  以前的领导者现在肯定落后了。你知道是什么导致的吗?此前表现落后的是黄金股。而且您知道现在的趋势是什么吗?银价–通常在上升的最后阶段。HUI指数在图表的底部标记为棕色。当领导者落后而落后者领先时,人们应该认识到市场到达顶端 —— 这是目前从钯和铂分析中得出的关键结论。

 

  Palladium was the leader and platinum was actually one of the laggards. Palladium was down by 0.43 last week. And what did platinum do?


  钯金是领先者,而铂金实际上是落后者之一。上周钯金下跌0.43。铂金做了什么?

 

 

  

  Platinum rallied by 3.52% last week.


  上周,铂金上涨了3.52%。

 

  The big rally in platinum to palladium ratio is yet another sign from the relative valuations analysis pointing to a nearby top in the precious metals sector.


  相对钯金/钯金比率的大幅上涨是相对估值分析的又一个信号,表明贵金属行业已接近见顶。

 

  Having said that, let’s take a look at silver’s forecast. In case of the white metal, its ratio to gold might be more important at this time than price itself.


  话虽如此,让我们看看白银的预测。对于白色金属,此时它与黄金的比例可能比价格本身更为重要。

 

 

 

  The silver futures are trading at $17.73, and gold futures are trading at $1,773, which means that in case of the futures market, the gold to silver ratio has just moved to the 100 level.


  白银期货的交易价格为17.73美元,黄金期货的交易价格为1,773美元,这意味着在期货市场上,金银比率已经上升到100水平。

 

  Earlier this year, the gold to silver ratio had broken above the very long-term and critical resistance of 100. Is it really that surprising that silver is verifying the breakout by moving back to the previously broken level? It’s not.


  今年早些时候,金银比已经突破了长期和关键阻力位100。真的令人惊讶的是,银价正在突破回到之前的标准么?它不是。

 

  The key ratio for the precious metals market has just moved back to the previously broken resistance level and it’s verifying it as support. This is relatively normal that after a breakout, the price or ratio moves to the previously broken level.


  贵金属市场的关键比率刚刚回到先前打破的阻力水平,并且正在证实它是支撑。这是相对正常的,即在突破之后,价格或比率将移动到先前的突破水平。

 

 

  

  Yes, on a short-term basis, and looking at silver chart alone, the breakout above the April highs and a quick move to the early-March highs was a clearly bullish phenomenon. However, this ignores the fact that silver is known for its fakeouts (fake breakouts) and that looking at its relative performance to gold has been more useful (and profitable) than looking at its individual technical developments, especially if they were not confirmed by analogous moves in gold.


  是的,从短期来看,仅看银价图表,突破4月高点并迅速升至3月初高点,显然是看涨的现象。然而,这忽略了以下事实:白银以其“假突破”而闻名,而研究白银相对于黄金的相对表现,要比研究单个技术发展更有用(且更有利可图),尤其是如果它们没有得到黄金类似走势的证实的话。

 

  Consequently, we view the current action in silver as bearish, not bullish, especially since the gold to silver ratio moved back to the very strong support level (100), which likely means that silver’s strength relative to gold is over, at least for some time.


  因此,我们认为白银当前的走势是熊市,而不是牛市,尤其是因为金银比率回到非常强劲的支撑位(100),这可能意味着白银相对于黄金的强势已经结束,至少在一段时间内是这样。

 

  All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


  以上发现的所有论文,研究和信息仅代表Przemyslaw Radomski,CFA和Sunshine Profits员工的分析和看法。因此,它可能被证明是错误的,如有更改,恕不另行通知。观点和分析基于撰写本文时各论文作者可获得的数据。尽管以上提供的信息是基于认真研究和认为准确的信息来源,但CFA Przemyslaw Radomski及其同事不保证所报告数据或信息的准确性或完整性。以上发表的意见既不是要约也不是购买或出售任何证券的建议。Radomski先生不是注册证券顾问。通过阅读Przemyslaw Radomski的作品,CFA报告您完全同意,对于您就这些报告中提供的任何信息做出的任何决定,他将不承担任何责任。在任何金融市场中进行投资,交易和投机都可能带来很高的损失风险。Przemyslaw Radomski,CFA,Sunshine Profits的员工和关联公司及其家庭成员可能在任何证券(包括任何报告或论文中提及的证券)中拥有淡仓或长期仓位,并可能进行其他购买和/或出售这些证券,恕不另行通知。





  

  This article was originally published in FX empire and was eventually compiled by China silver net.

  该文章最初发表于FX帝国,最终由中国白银网编译。  


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