《2020年国际白银价格预测报告》系列之三
贵金属和大宗商品研究与咨询公司CPM集团管理合伙人
Silver in 2020
Jeffrey M. Christian
Managing Partner
CPM Group LLC
CPM for HSE, 14 Feb. 2020
The silver market stands at an interesting position at the beginning of 2020. Prices have risen since the middle of 2019, creating a fair bit of bullish sentiment on the part of market commenters and precious metals marketing groups. That bullishness is not being shared by investors who buy physical silver and gold, however, since they have not been buying physical metal. The rise in prices has reflected shorter term investors in futures, options, forwards, and ETFs.
白银市场在2020年初处于一个有趣的位置。自2019年年中以来，银价一直在上涨，这为市场评论员和贵金属销售集团带来了相当多的看涨情绪。然而，购买实物白银和实物黄金的投资者并不认同这种看涨情绪，因为他们一直没有持续购买实物金属。此次价格上涨反映了投资者对期货、期权、远期和ETFs更短期的投资。
Silver prices rose sharply from $15.25 at the end of June 2019 to as high as $19.75 by 4 September. While the increase in prices was hailed by silver marketing groups as the “start of the next bull market,” it is critical to understand that the rise in prices during this period was driven primarily by short-covering on the New York Comex September silver futures contract. There was very little demand for physical silver anywhere in the world pushing prices higher at this time. Coin and bar sales to investors remained at very low levels, while only small amounts of silver were purchased by investors through exchange traded funds.
白银价格自2019年6月底的15.25美元大幅上涨至9月4日的19.75美元。 尽管白银市场团队将价格上涨称为“下一个牛市的开始”， 这一时期银价上涨主要是受纽约商品期货交易所9月份白银期货合约空头回补的推动，当时世界各地对能够推高白银价格的实物白银的需求很少。投资者对银币和银条购买需求仍然处于非常低的水平，他们仅通过ETFs购买了少量白银。
After the September Comex contract roll was over silver prices fell, trading between $16.50 and $18.50 for most of the rest of 2019 into 2020.
9月份Comex合约到期后，白银价格下跌，在2019年至2020年剩余的大部分时间里，白银交易价格在16.50美元至18.50美元之间波动。
While marketers were touting a new silver bull market, even a superficial examination shows that while prices rose sharply in the third quarter, and were up around 3.2% on an annual average basis in 2019, the rise in prices was contained within the broad sideways trading range that silver has maintained since falling sharply from 2012 to 2015. The rally took silver back to the high end of this range, but no further. Silver continued to bounce along a base that has persisted for the past five years.
尽管销售人员在吹捧新的白银牛市，但通过一个粗略调查就能说明，虽然价格在第三季度大幅上涨， 2019年的年平均涨幅约3.2％，但涨幅被限制在广泛的横盘整理区间内。自2012年至2015年白银价格大幅下跌以来，银价一直维持在这个区间内。这波涨势令银价回到该区间的高点，但没有进一步上升。银价在过去五年的基础上持续反弹。
That was the reality silver was facing as it moves through 2020, before the coronavirus pandemic went global. In 2019 investor demand for physical silver, which typically drives prices higher or lower, was at its lowest level since 2005. Even so, the price started to rise. Marketing shills say that investment demand has been strong, but they are distorting the reality in an effort to try to sell silver to investors.
在新型冠状病毒蔓延全球之前，这就是白银在2020年所面临的现实。2019年，投资者对通常推动价格上涨或走低的实物白银的需求处于2005年以来的最低水平。即使如此，价格还是开始上涨。 市场销售人士称投资需求一直很强劲，但这是他们正在扭曲事实，试图向投资者出售白银。
The reality of the silver price increase contains both bad and good information related to silver’s future price prospects. It is bad that investment demand is so low. But it is good that prices rose even in an absence of any such demand.
白银价格上涨的现实包含了与银价未来走势相关的好坏信息。 投资需求如此之低是不利的。 但即使没有这种需求，白银价格也上涨也是个好消息。
Investment demand is projected to remain low in 2020. The same factors that have turned investors off over the past three years, keeping prices ‘down,’ are extending into this year. Silver has disappointed investors. Many investors previously lured into buying silver by the distorted commentary of marketing groups have fled the silver and gold markets out of disenchantment and disllusionment at the failure of these metals to achieve the unrealistic prices promised by marketeers in the past. Other long-term silver investors have been passing away, and their estates have been selling off the silver. Many investors have given up on silver and gold, while others have re-focused on shorter term trading rather than long-term buying and holding silver.
预计2020年投资需求仍将保持低位。过去三年里，令投资者望而却步、压低价格的因素一直延续到今年。白银令投资者失望。许多之前被销售集团的歪曲评论所吸引而买入白银的投资者，已经逃离白银和黄金市场，因为他们不再对这些金属能达到市场人士过去承诺的不切实际的价格抱有幻想。其他长期白银投资者正在慢慢退出，他们也在抛售白银资产。许多投资者已经放弃了白银和黄金，而其他投资者则重新关注短期交易，而不是长期购买和持有白银。
In this environment silver prices had languished. Then came the coronavirus’s move to being a global pandemic. This caused a massive sell off of all assets, including silver. Silver plunged to around $11.80 per ounce in the middle of March in the face of the world’s economy shutting down.
在这种环境下，白银价格一直萎靡不振。接着，冠状病毒开始全球大爆发。这导致了包括白银在内的所有资产被大规模抛售。3月中旬，在全球经济停滞的情况下，白银价格暴跌至每盎司11.80美元左右。
Silver prices had been projected to rise only modestly in 2020, restrained by a lack of investment demand for physical silver in the absence of compelling economic, financial market, or political reasons to stock up on silver and gold. Now, they may do well if they can simply be flat with 2019 figures.
由于缺乏令人信服的经济、金融市场或政治原因来囤积白银和黄金，实物白银的投资需求将受到限制，预计2020年银价只会小幅上涨。现在，如果它们能简单地与2019年的数据持平，已经做得很好了。
原本预计2020年银价会小幅上涨，但由于缺乏令人信服的经济、金融市场或政治原因来囤积白银和黄金，实物白银的投资需求不足，这限制了银价的上涨。现在，如果他们能简单地与2019年的数字持平，已经做的很好了。
CPM expects silver prices might rise back into a range of $15.50 - $18.50 during the second half of this year.
CPM预计，今年下半年白银价格可能会回升至15.50-18.50美元之间。
Mine production is projected to be flat to slightly lower, while secondary recovery from scrap may rise somewhat due to increased recycling of spent electronics and other silver-bearing products due to heightened environmental awareness, more stringent recycling laws, and somewhat higher silver prices. Fabrication demand is projected to increase perhaps 1.6% in 2020 from 2019’s level of demand.
预计矿山产量将持平或略微下降，而废料的二次回收可能会有所增加，这是由于环境意识的提高、回收法律的更加严格，以及白银价格的上涨，使废旧电子产品和其他含银产品的回收量增加。预计2020年的制造需求将在2019年的基础上增长1.6%。
Further price increases are expected, but beyond 2020, and only when long-term investors resume buying larger volumes of physical silver. When that happens, silver prices could rise dramatically. It may be several years before that happens. Meanwhile silver prices are expected to rise modestly.
预计白银价格还会进一步上涨，但要到2020年以后，而且只有在长期投资者重新开始大量购买实物白银时才会出现。当这种情况发生时，白银价格可能会大幅上涨。这可能需要几年的时间。与此同时，预计银价将会小幅上涨。
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